The November 2025 natural gas contract expired at $3.376, a 54-cent increase over the October settlement. Looking out further on the forward curve (Fig. 1-1) prices start out bearish for the balance of the winter before turning bullish in the summer of 2026 as the market tries to figure out the correct price to bring additional supplies on to meet growing demand, driven primarily by data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

As three new LNG export facilities — Plaquemines, Corpus Christi 3, and Golden Pass — reach various stages of completion, LNG feed gas deliveries hit an all-time high, just shy of 18 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Plaquemines LNG came on gradually at the beginning of 2025 and recently hit a new record of feed gas deliveries, about 4 Bcf/d in early November. In October, Corpus Christi 3 started the testing process and is now processing roughly 0.5 Bcf/d. Lastly, the delayed Golden Pass project is now receiving delivery of natural gas and is expected to increase deliveries in early 2026.

U.S. natural gas inventories stand at 3.915 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is 6 Bcf below the lofty balance from last year and 162 Bcf above the 5-year average. As we come to the end of the injection season, analysts are predicting the U.S. will enter the upcoming winter with a storage balance of 3.95 Tcf, which is considered comfortably full. It’s worth pointing out that Columbia Gas Transmission withdrew gas from storage in the final week of October, an atypical move that usually occurs in early to mid-November. This led to a net withdrawal in the Eastern region — the only region to withdrawal, per the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage Report. Continued monitoring of production, storage balances, and cash trends in the Eastern region of the U.S. will be important, as these developments could signal emerging supply-demand tightness in the Northeast ahead of winter.

Over the last month, the PJM Interconnection (PJM) has released several important updates. These developments will shape reliability, energy and capacity prices, and transmission costs. Here’s an overview of key influences on the market:

• Winter 2025/26 assessment: PJM’s Winter 2025/26 assessment shows adequate generation to meet winter peak demand. However, the system’s reserve margin — the cushion of extra capacity available during extreme weather — has declined compared to last year. Near-term reliability remains strong, though tighter reserve margins point to higher energy costs, as evidenced by a 63.2% increase in the load-weighted average real-time locational marginal pricing (LMP) from January through June 2025 versus the same period in 2024. This in turn is strengthening forward energy prices.
• Transmission upgrades and flexible load models: PJM published its preliminary short list of major transmission upgrades worth $8 to $10 billion, primarily driven by load growth and power-flow constraints in the Mid-Atlantic region, notably Virginia. These investments in transmission upgrades are likely to impact customer bills over time as PJM works to recoup the project costs. In addition to the transmission upgrade projects, PJM is also exploring “flexible load” models for tech-driven customers, including a new project in Virginia to test whether AI data centers can adjust their energy use in real time to support grid stability. These models could unlock new grid flexibility without additional generation investment. If successful, it could help moderate peak pricing, improve reliability, and reduce the long-term cost of serving large loads. Meanwhile, state governors across the PJM footprint are increasing pressure for greater state influence over PJM’s decisions, including transmission approval, interconnection timelines, and cost-allocation rules. New regulatory changes are likely over the next 12 to 24 months, including shifts in how infrastructure and reliability costs are allocated to customers.
• Upcoming capacity auctions: December will be important, as PJM will release the Base Residual Auction results for the June 2027 to May 2028 delivery year. See Fig. 3-1 for key future capacity auction dates.

October 2025 finished as the 14th warmest October nationally since 1950 based on gas-weighted heating degree days (HDDs). Departures from normal temperatures were strongest in the central U.S., where temperatures averaged as much as 5 to 8 degrees above the 30-year normal. In the Eastern and West Coast regions, temperatures averaged close to a few degrees below normal.

So far, November temperatures have been well above normal across the western half of the country, while the eastern third of the U.S. has been averaging normal to slightly below normal temperatures. Forecasts for the remainder of the month are variable in the eastern half of the U.S., with a brief shot of winter-like temperatures early in the week of November 9, followed by a return to above-normal temperatures. Overall, November’s currently averaging above normal in the central U.S. once again, with seasonable temperatures farther east.

Winter outlooks remain largely unchanged, with many showcasing a stereotypical La Niña pattern. Such a pattern correlates with warmer temperatures in the South and East Coast regions, with cold in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. La Niña conditions are currently present and favored to persist through the early part of winter before a transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions sometime early next year.